Daily Forex News:
Daily Wave Analysis: EUR/USD Bearish Break To Challenge 61.8% And 78.6% Fib Levels (18-Dec-2017 at 11:31:15 am)
The EUR/USD bearish break below the support trend line (dotted blue) makes it likely that price will challenge the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (pink). A break below the 100% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1 invalidates the wave 2 (pink) and indicates an expansion of wave 4 (light purple).
Gold Shorts Still In Play (18-Dec-2017 at 10:17:47 am)
Welcome back to the final trading week before Christmas. It will be from this week that liquidity starts to fall and things could go one of two ways. First, price could well do absolutely nothing. Trade in a boring, sideways range as tight as 20 pips a day. But it could just as easily lurch a couple of hundred pips straight down on next to no news, simply because there aren't any orders in the market to absorb the move.
Market Morning Briefing: Dollar-Yen Has Also Moved Up On Back Of Perceived Dollar Strength (18-Dec-2017 at 08:46:25 am)
Dollar-Yen (112.64) has also moved up on back of perceived dollar strength. If the dollar index retains its strength (around 94) for another week, we could see Dollar Yen move in the range of 112.5-113.5. In case of a test of 94.5 by the Dollar Index, Dollar-Yen could test 114 (acting as resistance on 3 day and weekly candles); post which there should be a corrective dip.
EURUSD - Vulnerable, Sets Up To Weaken Further (18-Dec-2017 at 07:30:47 am)
EURUSD - The pair closed lower after reversing its earlier gains for the week. On the upside, resistance comes in at 1.1800 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1850 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1900 level where a break will expose the 1.1950 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.1700 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1650 level. A break of here will aim at the 1.1600 level. Below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 1.1550. All in all, EURUSD faces further downside weakness
GOLD - Vulnerable, Faces Pullback Risk (18-Dec-2017 at 07:29:35 am)
GOLD - The commodity caked off higher prices to close on a rejection candle on Friday. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,250.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,240.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,230.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure towards the 1,220.00 level. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,260.00 level where a break will aim at the 1,270.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1,280.00 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1,290.00 level. All in all, GOLD looks to weaken further on correction.
Russia's Central Bank (CBR) Delivered Surprise Cut Of 50Bps To 7.75% On Friday (18-Dec-2017 at 11:54:08 am)
The final details of the US tax overhaul were revealed on Friday. The Republican tax plan cuts the corporate tax rate to 21% on a permanent basis, while offering temporary cuts to individuals. The tax plan is expected to be voted through Senate by Tuesday and signed by President Donald Trump by the end of the week, before entering into force by February. According to the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT), the reform will raise economic growth of about 0.8% over the next ten years. However, according to the JCT's estimate (link), this will only cover about a third of the cost , which means that the reform will add at least USD1trn to the USD20trn national debt over next decade. The plan could also boost US corporate earnings by some 10% on average, with oil refiners, airlines and banks among the main beneficiaries, according to Financial Times.
Market Update - Asian Session: China Home Prices Stable In Nov, Australia Updates Outlook (18-Dec-2017 at 11:33:29 am)
General Trend: Asian equities opened higher following Friday’s gains in the US, amid optimism related to tax reform. CME Bitcoin Futures opened at $20,650 and traded ~80 contracts in the first 15 minutes of trading
Aussie Dollar Trading On A Stronger Footing In The Asian Session (18-Dec-2017 at 11:27:32 am)
The pair is expected to find support at 0.7634, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.7607. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.7691, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.7721.
Euro-Zone's Trade Surplus Declined To A 3-Month Low In October (18-Dec-2017 at 11:26:18 am)
The pair is expected to find support at 1.1730, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1697. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1804, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1845.
EU Leaders Agreed To Move To Second Phase Of Brexit Talks (18-Dec-2017 at 11:24:06 am)
The pair is expected to find support at 1.3277, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3217. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3421, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3505.
Japan's Adjusted Merchandise Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Widened In November (18-Dec-2017 at 11:22:38 am)
The pair is expected to find support at 112.20, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 111.72. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 113.00, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 113.32.
Swiss Franc Trading A Tad Higher This Morning (18-Dec-2017 at 11:21:23 am)
The pair is expected to find support at 0.9872, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.9843. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.9933, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.9965.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales Unexpectedly Dropped In October (18-Dec-2017 at 11:18:33 am)
The pair is expected to find support at 1.2764, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2676. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.2916, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.2980.
EURUSD Facing Crucial Support Test (18-Dec-2017 at 10:37:48 am)
There were a few swing moves in the Euro this past week above 1.1800 against the US Dollar. At the end, EUR/USD failed to hold gains above 1.1820 and declined. The US industrial production in Nov 2017 increased by +0.2% (MoM), which was less than the forecast of +0.3%. However, the EUR/USD pair failed to gain traction and started a downside move below the 1.1800.
Easing Into The Holiday Season, Not So Quick ! (18-Dec-2017 at 07:13:40 am)
USD regained some steam heading into the weekend as did US equity markets as Tax reform finality is in sight. G10 dealers are expected to ease into Christmas and New Year break. So expect low liquidity, and year-end flows will begin to factor into the equation. So far there are few exacting signals, but typically passive portfolios sell the surplus dollars and buy other currencies and bring the overall fund back into balance. However, this year the funding scarcity is moving in the US direction as people seek dollars to cover them through the end of the year. Tighter USD funding conditions early Dec could imply 1) Short dollar position funding will be very scarce over the New Year turn or 2) because US funding is expensive, demand for treasuries and other US assets will be low the final two weeks.
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary: Retail Sales Sing Into the Holidays (16-Dec-2017 at 07:50:05 am)
Economic data this week continued to signal moderate economic growth and inflation started to show signs of picking up. Following November's performance, consumer prices are now up 2.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while producer prices are now up 3.1 percent. The more recent inflation data combined with the rate hike out of the FOMC this week showed that monetary policy normalization remains on track. With the release of our Annual Economic Outlook, we added a third rate hike into our forecast for 2018 while we kept two fed funds rate hikes in 2019. Retail sales data showed a surge in consumer spending in November to start the holiday shopping season. Industrial output also continued to rise for the month with manufacturing output posting its third consecutive month of improvement.
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